Oligopticon

A prediction market prices AI feature film at roughly coin-flip odds while the culture treats it as a fait accompli — and the gap turns out to be about what we even mean by 'a movie.'

Crypto regulation odds have nearly halved while the people closest to the bill keep insisting it's almost done — and the real obstacle isn't regulation at all.

A thin prediction market is quietly assigning near-coin-flip odds to the end of individual consciousness — and someone is already writing its constitution.

Meta is building a prediction market app called Arena and wants to embed it into your group chats, your news feed, and your Messenger. The company that controls the social graph for 3.6 billion people now wants to host the infrastructure for what counts as “probably true.”

A coin-flip market on an octogenarian senator's exit or death sits beside viral death hoaxes, revealing how political mortality becomes spectacle the moment decline is visible.